Urea prices have been swinging all over the place this year. One month they cool off, the next they bounce right back. The latest trend makes it clear how sensitive this market still is to natural gas costs and the export rules set by the big producers.

In India and Southeast Asia, procurement teams are dealing with narrower supply windows. Meanwhile, Western buyers have a bit more breathing room thanks to softer ag demand. Even with that gap, energy prices are still the big variable shaping everything. This breakdown captures the story well:https://www.procurementresource.com/resource-center/urea-price-trends

It walks through production economics, regional spreads, and where things could head through 2026.

From where I’m sitting, the market stays tight unless gas prices settle for real. Anyone seen new policy moves or contract shifts that could lighten fertilizer input costs? Right now it feels like we’re stuck in a loop of seasonal spikes followed by half-hearted corrections.